Pfizer CEO warns of Chinese biotech threat
Good morning. Incumbents face structural threats across pharma and search.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla expects Chinese pharmaceutical companies to overtake US incumbents within two years. Speaking on the competitive landscape, Bourla noted overseas rivals are operating at half the cost and three times the speed, threatening to commoditize legacy drug discovery pipelines much like the electric vehicle sector.
“I don't think there's any doubt about $6 a gallon here this summer because we're just going into summer.”
Today's Signals (6)
Operator-validated investment signals before they reach consensus.
“I don't think there's any doubt about $6 a gallon here this summer because we're just going into summer.”
bullish · 9/10 conviction
Discussing: US summer gasoline prices
“So I go on those shows and I told them the other day, you're going to six. I don't think there's any doubt about $6 a gallon here this summer because we're just going into summer. Now you'll get big data from the DOE today.”
Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices · May 20, 2026
“Work that we would usually do with people with masters or PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.”
bullish · 9/10 conviction
Discussing: AI automating financial research
“And now he's saying for us at Citadel, it's allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases. It's been really interesting to watch. Work that we would usually do with people with masters or PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. And it's seen as sort of a blackpilling moment because he says like, I got home and I was sort of, I got to tell you I went home one Friday, barely depressed by this because you could see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.”
Leopold's 13F, Data Center Fixes, Shein Buys Everlane | Mike Isaac, Rowan Trollope, Dean Leitersdorf, Joanna Stern · May 18, 2026
“The sum of it all is that within about five years, we will have insufficient resources to pay the benefits. The trust fund will be fully exhausted.”
bearish · 9/10 conviction
Discussing: Social Security trust fund depletion
“And so the tax stream began to be insufficient to pay our benefits. The sum of it all is that within about five years, we will have insufficient resources to pay the benefits. The trust fund will be fully exhausted. I can talk about that, it doesn't exist, but there is IOUs there. And Congress has, in legislative language, said, look, when that happens, there has to be a reduction in the benefit payments to equal the revenues coming in.”
Bill Beach on the Future of United States' Economic Statistics and Fiscal Position · May 18, 2026
“This is going to have real implications. You're going to have candidates talking about kill switches, moratoriums. You're going to have data centers not being able to be built. The country is going to turn on this stuff.”
bearish · 9/10 conviction
Discussing: Political and regulatory backlash against AI
“Get the criticism. But this is going to have real implications. You're going to have candidates talking about kill switches, moratoriums. You're going to have data centers not being able to be built. The country is going to turn on this stuff.”
Is OpenAI Ready To IPO?, The Datacenters in Space Myth, The Kids Boo AI · May 23, 2026
“I think most of the time the balic is the last mile. There will always be a lot of space left for this last mile in different verticals. And I would highly encourage people to continue working on that.”
bullish · 8/10 conviction
Discussing: opportunities for AI startups
“The reason why is because a lot of people kind of think about intelligence and quotations and all like kind of like probability as being the real balic but I don't think that's true. I think most of the time the balic is the last mile. It's like making sure that the model has access to the right permissions or has access to the right connectors and things like this. And we are going to be very focused on this general aspect and I think there are other companies that should be focused on more the verticals and providing maximum value of what we currently have.”
OpenAI's Yann Dubois: Why AI Progress Suddenly Feels Real · May 21, 2026
“Every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed is relatively good for America. It's terrible for Europe. It is terrible for Asia.”
bullish · 8/10 conviction
Discussing: US relative economic advantage
“And so the street of Hormuz is absolutely bad for everyone, but relatively good for America and relatively good for Trump's policy goals. And that's why I think he's in no hurry. Every day the Strait is closed. And for whatever, he does seem like a relative thinker. Every day the Strait of Hormuz is closed is relatively good for America. It's terrible for Europe. It is terrible for Asia.”
SpaceX's $2T Case, Nvidia's Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis? · May 22, 2026
Sector Heat
Where conviction's concentrated this week — and where it's cooling.
Information Technology
▲ 132.0%tailwind
Hyperscalers are aggressively expanding capital expenditures to secure AI infrastructure dominance despite rising power constraints.
Industrials
▲ 29.0%tailwind
Defense contractors and drone manufacturers are benefiting from a shift toward forward-deployed, 3D-printed military hardware.
Health Care
▲ 15.0%watching
Incumbent pharmaceutical companies face mounting pressure to accelerate drug discovery pipelines before overseas competitors commoditize the market.
From the Conversations
Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices
May 20, 2026 · 40m · 1 quote pulled
▶ Listen“I don't think there's any doubt about $6 a gallon here this summer because we're just going into summer.”
“So I go on those shows and I told them the other day, you're going to six. I don't think there's any doubt about $6 a gallon here this summer because we're just going into summer. Now you'll get big data from the DOE today.”
Leopold's 13F, Data Center Fixes, Shein Buys Everlane | Mike Isaac, Rowan Trollope, Dean Leitersdorf, Joanna Stern
May 18, 2026 · 2h 56m · 1 quote pulled
▶ Listen“Work that we would usually do with people with masters or PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.”
“And now he's saying for us at Citadel, it's allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases. It's been really interesting to watch. Work that we would usually do with people with masters or PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. And it's seen as sort of a blackpilling moment because he says like, I got home and I was sort of, I got to tell you I went home one Friday, barely depressed by this because you could see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.”
Macro Musings with David Beckworth
Bill Beach on the Future of United States' Economic Statistics and Fiscal Position
May 18, 2026 · 52m · 1 quote pulled
▶ Listen“The sum of it all is that within about five years, we will have insufficient resources to pay the benefits. The trust fund will be fully exhausted.”
“And so the tax stream began to be insufficient to pay our benefits. The sum of it all is that within about five years, we will have insufficient resources to pay the benefits. The trust fund will be fully exhausted. I can talk about that, it doesn't exist, but there is IOUs there. And Congress has, in legislative language, said, look, when that happens, there has to be a reduction in the benefit payments to equal the revenues coming in.”
Sources
▶ ListenBloomberg Surveillance
Concerns Over Long Term Yields and Oil Prices<p>Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: <a href="http://bit.ly/3vTiACF" data-destination="rte:bind">http://bit.ly/3vTiACF</a>.<br>Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyThursday, May 21, 2026<br>Featuring:<br><br>1) Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, brings us into the market open and discusses capping rates and bond market activity as Kevin Warsh begins his term as Fed Chair.<br>2) Paul Sankey, founder at Sankey Research, joins for a discussion on the outlook for oil and energy prices.<br>3) Andreas Utermann, Chairman of Board of Directors at Vontobel, discusses investment opportunities amid the current geopolitical backdrop.<br>4) Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst: Semis & Electronics at Seaport Research Partners, previews Nvidia earnings and why he has a "sell" on the stock.</p><p>See <a href="https://omnystudio.com/listener">omnystudio.com/listener</a> for privacy information.</p>
▶ ListenThe MAD Podcast with Matt Turck
OpenAI's Yann Dubois: Why AI Progress Suddenly Feels Real<p>What actually goes into pushing the boundaries of post-training and reinforcement learning for frontier models like GPT 5.5? In this episode of The MAD Podcast, Matt Turck sits down with Yann Dubois, lead of OpenAI’s Post-Training Frontiers team, to unpack how reinforcement learning has evolved beyond verifiable math and coding competitions to actively optimize for messy, real-world utility. They explore the delicate balance of test-time compute and model efficiency, the growing challenge of building open-ended AI evaluations, and why the ultimate opportunity for startups lies in mastering "last mile" application harnesses rather than competing on horizontal capabilities.</p><p><br></p><p>(00:00)44 - Cold open</p><p>(00:34) - Intro</p><p>(01:30) - Why recent AI progress feels like a step function</p><p>(04:13) - Model reliability & the rollercoaster of shipping 5.5</p><p>(07:33) - How OpenAI structures vertical and horizontal teams</p><p>(09:49) - Improving model efficiency and test-time compute</p><p>(12:32) - Yann Dubois' journey from Switzerland to OpenAI</p><p>(15:37) - Reasoning in 2026: Real-world utility vs verifiable rewards</p><p>(18:34) - GPT-5.5 Thinking vs Pro: Scaling test-time compute</p><p>(20:09) - How reasoning models become more efficient</p><p>(23:23) - Pre-training scaling and overcoming the data wall</p><p>(27:03) - Multimodal data, synthetic data, and embodied AI</p><p>(31:05) - Demystifying mid-training and post-training</p><p>(37:21) - Does RL create new capabilities in AI?</p><p>(38:53) - The challenges and frontier of scaling RL</p><p>(43:09) - Is building AI models a craft or a strict science?</p><p>(48:21) - How AI models generalize across different domains</p><p>(54:18) - How reinforcement learning cures AI hallucinations</p><p>(56:04) - Negative generalization and conflicting instructions</p><p>(58:05) - Can RL scale to law, medicine, and the broader economy?</p><p>(1:00:19) - The evaluation bottleneck and Model as a Judge</p><p>(1:04:21) - Continuous AI progress & continual learning</p><p>(1:08:49) - Will foundation models eat the agent harness?</p><p>(1:11:23) - Why startups should focus on the last mile of AI</p>
▶ ListenTBPN
Leopold's 13F, Data Center Fixes, Shein Buys Everlane | Mike Isaac, Rowan Trollope, Dean Leitersdorf, Joanna Stern<p></p><ul><li>(00:17) - Jury Rules Against Musk </li> <li>(02:23) - Leopold's Situational Awareness 13F Is Out </li> <li>(16:03) - Data Center Backlash Gets Serious </li> <li>(44:47) - Mike Isaac, a technology reporter at The New York Times, discusses Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI, highlighting Musk's strategy of using memorable phrases like "you can't steal a charity" to appeal to jurors unfamiliar with nonprofit contract law. He notes that OpenAI's defense centered on the statute of limitations, a more technical argument that ultimately swayed the jury's decision. Isaac also mentions the unexpected nature of the verdict and the various protest groups outside the courtroom. </li> <li>(01:07:52) - Rowan Trollope is the CEO of Redis, where he leads the company’s efforts to expand the popular in-memory database platform into a broader real-time data and AI infrastructure business. He previously held senior leadership roles at Cisco and Five9, and is known for scaling enterprise software and cloud communications companies. </li> <li>(01:28:26) - Shein Buys Everlane </li> <li>(01:39:04) - Dean Leitersdorf is the co-founder and CEO of Decart, an AI company focused on generative models and real-time AI infrastructure. He works on building systems that make advanced AI applications faster, more interactive, and easier to deploy at scale. </li> <li>(01:54:56) - Protein Shortage </li> <li>(02:04:02) - Joanna Stern is a senior personal technology columnist at The Wall Street Journal, where she covers consumer technology, AI, gadgets, and the impact of tech on everyday life. She is also the author of I Am Not a Robot, a book exploring the increasingly blurred line between humans and machines in the age of AI.</li> </ul><p><br></p><p>Follow TBPN: </p><p>https://TBPN.com</p><p>https://x.com/tbpn</p><p>https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231</p><p>https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235</p><p>https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive</p>
▶ ListenBig Technology Podcast
Is OpenAI Ready To IPO?, The Datacenters in Space Myth, The Kids Boo AIJoin us for the Big Technology AI Summit on June, 18, 2026. Get your tickets here: summit.bigtechnology.com.... Ranjan Roy from Margins is back for our weekly discussion of the latest tech news. We cover: 1) OpenAI's revenue numbers come out ahead of its potential IPO filing 2) Why is OpenAI considering going public now? 3) Is OpenAI trying to IPO ahead of Anthropic? 4) Is the Iran War accelerating the timeline of these fundraisings? 5) What would the top of the AI boom look like? 6) SpaceX files for an IPO 7) Are datacenters in space a myth? 8) Eric Schmidt gets booed at a college commencement 9) Meta's mass layoff 10) Meta's keystroke tracking rationale 11) Marc Andreessen says AI won't file a HR complaint --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack + Discord? Here’s 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
▶ ListenAll-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
SpaceX's $2T Case, Nvidia's Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?<p>(0:00) Gavin Baker joins the show!</p> <p>(0:30) Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic; hypergrowth and profitability</p> <p>(12:42) Why Americans have turned on AI, anti-human perception</p> <p>(27:22) Trump pulls AI EO, US-China AI relationship, dystopian AI layoffs</p> <p>(45:19) SpaceX S-1 tear down! Breaking down the three major businesses and the case for a $2T valuation</p> <p>(1:11:22) Nvidia smashes earnings but stock falls, why people are shorting chips</p> <p>(1:22:25) Market update: Flashing red signals, oil, inflation, yields up</p> <p>(1:32:45) China trip flops, or was progress made behind the scenes?</p> <p>Follow Gavin Baker:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/GavinSBaker">https://x.com/GavinSBaker</a></p> <p>Apply for Summit 2026:</p> <p><a href= "https://allin.com/events">https://allin.com/events</a></p> <p>Follow the besties:</p> <p><a href="https://x.com/chamath">https://x.com/chamath</a></p> <p><a href="https://x.com/Jason">https://x.com/Jason</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/DavidSacks">https://x.com/DavidSacks</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/friedberg">https://x.com/friedberg</a></p> <p>Follow on X:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/theallinpod">https://x.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on Instagram:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod">https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on TikTok:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod">https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod</a></p> <p>Follow on LinkedIn:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod">https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod</a></p> <p>Intro Music Credit:</p> <p><a href="https://rb.gy/tppkzl">https://rb.gy/tppkzl</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/yung_spielburg">https://x.com/yung_spielburg</a></p> <p>Intro Video Credit:</p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/TheZachEffect">https://x.com/TheZachEffect</a></p> <p>Referenced in the show:</p> <p><a href= "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/anthropic-hires-openai-cofounder-andrej-karpathy-former-tesla-ai-lead.html"> https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/anthropic-hires-openai-cofounder-andrej-karpathy-former-tesla-ai-lead.html</a></p> <p><a href= "https://github.com/karpathy/autoresearch">https://github.com/karpathy/autoresearch</a></p> <p><a href= "https://github.com/multica-ai/andrej-karpathy-skills/stargazers">https://github.com/multica-ai/andrej-karpathy-skills/stargazers</a></p> <p><a href= "https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/19/openai-co-founder-andrej-karpathy-joins-anthropics-pre-training-team"> https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/19/openai-co-founder-andrej-karpathy-joins-anthropics-pre-training-team</a></p> <p><a href= "https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-propel-anthropic-into-its-first-profitable-quarter-7edbf2f4"> https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-propel-anthropic-into-its-first-profitable-quarter-7edbf2f4</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1dxYljYVREYJX">https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1dxYljYVREYJX</a></p> <p><a href= "https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-executive-order-ee318f35acc8a2c43e47f3ebf26cb459"> https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-executive-order-ee318f35acc8a2c43e47f3ebf26cb459</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2057378437485216031">https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2057378437485216031</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/2056842597117636890">https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/2056842597117636890</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/lulumeservey/status/2057239284487201043">https://x.com/lulumeservey/status/2057239284487201043</a></p> <p><a href= "https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above">https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above</a></p> <p><a href= "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2057228707606196434">https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2057228707606196434</a></p> <p><a href= "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm"> https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm</a></p> <p><a href= "https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/Q127/NVDA-F1Q27-Quarterly-Presentation-FINAL.pdf"> https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/Q127/NVDA-F1Q27-Quarterly-Presentation-FINAL.pdf</a></p> <p><a href= "https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/leopold-aschenbrenner-investment-shift-agi-over-ai-chips-1797606"> https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/leopold-aschenbrenner-investment-shift-agi-over-ai-chips-1797606</a></p> <p><a href= "https://polymarket.com/event/may-inflation-us-annual">https://polymarket.com/event/may-inflation-us-annual</a></p> <p><a href= "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/inflation-rate-projected-to-hit-6percent-in-the-second-quarter-top-economic-forecasters-say.html"> https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/inflation-rate-projected-to-hit-6percent-in-the-second-quarter-top-economic-forecasters-say.html</a></p> <p><a href= "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026">https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026</a></p> <p><a href= "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/treasury-yields-inflation-bond-rout-oil.html"> https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/treasury-yields-inflation-bond-rout-oil.html</a></p> <p><a href= "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y">https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y</a></p>
▶ ListenMacro Musings with David Beckworth
Bill Beach on the Future of United States' Economic Statistics and Fiscal Position<p><span style= "font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> Bill Beach is the former commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the current executive director of the Fiscal Lab on Capitol Hill. In Bill's first appearance on the show he discusses a career in and around public service, the important niche his new organization fills, the frightening fiscal outlook of the United States, exactly how long we have before Social Security runs out, why he believes it will take lots of small changes instead of a big one to fix our fiscal outlook, the important role of the BLS, why our statistical methods needs reform, the most underrated economic statistical indicators, and much more.</span></p> <p><span style= "font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Watch <a href= "https://youtu.be/BahCHCG9fOU">the full length video</a> on our new YouTube Channel!</span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Check out the <a href= "https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/bill-beach-future-united-states-economic-statistics-and-fiscal-position">transcript</a> for this week's episode, now with links.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Recorded on April 15th, 2026</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Subscribe to David's Substack: <a href= "https://macroeconomicpolicynexus.substack.com/">Macroeconomic Policy Nexus</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Follow David Beckworth on X: <a href= "https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth">@DavidBeckworth</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Follow Bill Beach X: <a href= "https://x.com/BeachWW453">@BeachWW453</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Follow the show on X: <a href= "https://twitter.com/Macro_Musings">@Macro_Musings</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Check out our Macro Musings <a href= "https://www.bonfire.com/store/mercatus-podcast-swag/">merch!</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Timestamps</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:00:00 - Intro</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:01:25 - Bill's Career</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:10:11 - Fiscal Lab on Capitol Hill</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:17:23 - Fiscal Challenges of the United States</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:30:05 - Surveys from Bureau of Labor Statistics</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:43:12 - Challenges to Survey Work</p> <p class="MsoNormal">00:52:13 - Outro</p>
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